Today’s RED C poll in the Irish Sun makes fascinating reading.
This latest snapshot in time tells us a number of things – none of them good for Fianna Fail and Brian Cowen.
There’s not much good news for Enda Kenny either – and despite slipping a couple of points in his popularity rating Eamon Gilmore remains the market leader.
The one factor that is more worrying for the body politic is the increasing number of voters who are undecided or alternatively don’t want either of the three as the next Taoiseach.
A total of 7 per cent don’t know, 15 per cent rejected all three party leaders, as Brian Cowen remains stuck on 18 per cent, Enda Kenny is on 27 per cent a slip of one point in the last month and Eamon Gilmore has slipped seven points to 33 per cent. (This slippage may be partly due to the fact that Gilmore’s crafted soundbites delivered in the Dail which give him profile in the media have ceased since the Dail went on holidays.)
Based on these figures, the one emerging trend over the last few polls is that Labour will hold the balance of power in the next Government. While Gilmore is putting himself forward as the next Taoiseach that will depend on the final votes cast by the electorate. Because if they are to coalesce , if Gilmore can get his numbers up to as close to Fine Gael as possible, he will hold the whip hand in negotiations for roles and portfolios.
The Fine Gael rebel rump may well rear their head again as the possibility of being the second party in a new Government strikes fear into their electoral hearts.
For Brian Cowen the summer will be a dismal time.
This poll has shown no change in his personal popularity. In his home constituency he wins his highest approval of 24 per cent, but in Dublin which is critical to the strength of any of the parties he scores a lowly 13 per cent.
When the House returns on the 29th September the debate about the next budget and the necessity to find €3billion will resume with vigour. Labour will have to provide answers on crucial budget measures – and both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail could reap that harvest.
However, Brian Cowen has a window of opportunity between then and now – to be seen to be active, to give visible leadership and instil confidence that the country is being run confidently and competently over the coming months.
The Sunday Business Post who normally publish a Red C poll as a monthly tracker during the time the House sits did not run this month. The decision by the Irish Sun to run a poll instead was clever marketing and pr for the paper – but bad news at a bad time for the Taoiseach.
The traditional holiday period when politics goes on holidays – is not an option. Another opinion poll like this may prompt more than a debate at the Lemass group’s next meeting.